trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | May 06 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to Score | Mar 23 | $76 | −$76 | -100% |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Mar 20 | $854 | −$7 | -1% |
| Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? | Mar 20 | $29 | −$3 | -11% |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO | Mar 20 | $19 | +$7 | +36% |
| Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election | Mar 20 | $825 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Nottm Forest finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier | Mar 20 | $893 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 22? | Mar 20 | $749 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Mar 20 | $821 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22? | Mar 20 | $794 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or higher on March 23? | Mar 20 | $799 | −$4 | -0% |
| Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Seri | Mar 20 | $747 | +$1 | +0% |
| XRP Up or Down - March 2, 5AM ET | Mar 02 | $12 | +$12 | +100% |
| Solana Up or Down - March 1, 1AM ET | Mar 01 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 9AM ET | Mar 01 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET | Feb 27 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8AM ET | Feb 27 | $14 | +$14 | +100% |
| XRP Up or Down - February 24, 3AM ET | Feb 25 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8AM ET | Feb 25 | $5 | +$5 | +100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9PM ET | Feb 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down - February 14, 1AM ET | Feb 15 | $6 | +$6 | +100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 12 | -6.3% | -15.2% | 50% | 8% | -10.6% |
| all | 21 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 52% | 29% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.5% | 29% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 29% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 29% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 24% | -34.1% |