Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5bd…b9de other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (333 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$17 (+4%) realized +$10 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +178% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +114% what you keep after slip
Net edge+114%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day333.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$12
world 11% −$3
sports 10% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+151.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +8.3%
≤30d 2 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +8.3%
≤90d 2 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +8.3%
all 2 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover333.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +151.1% 50% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here +127.1% 50% -2.1%
15% +105.1% 50% -11.5%
20% +85.0% 50% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +178% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
65.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×5.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.04 per $1 lost it wins $5.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day333.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $62 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 61¢ $24 $31 +$8 (+33%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$13 +360%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 36m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 37m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 37m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 37m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 37m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 37m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 37m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 38m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 38m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 39m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 39m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 39m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 39m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 40m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 40m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 40m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 40m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 41m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 42m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 42m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 42m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 43m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 43m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 44m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.61 · official $111.61 (match) · 333 history records