Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ba…98ac crypto 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-1%) realized −$112 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%113W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day314.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$90
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
other 0% −$10
sports 0% −$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 34% -10.8%
≤30d 255 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 33% -11.1%
≤90d 255 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 33% -11.1%
all 255 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 33% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover314.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 33% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 27% -19.6%
15% -32.9% 20% -27.4%
20% -39.5% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses113 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)255 / 257
History coverage10d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day314.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 66¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.78 (match) · 3500 history records