Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5b5…205a sports 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,712 (+3%) realized +$4,212 · open −$500
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%36W / 182L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$1,819est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$50,390
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-74.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -76.9% -79.1% 18% 6% -71.3%
≤30d 78 -84.4% -85.9% 10% 8% -88.8%
≤90d 218 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 15% -77.9%
all 218 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 15% -77.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.1% 15% -77.9%
10% -76.6% 15% -80.0%
15% -78.8% 12% -82.0%
20% -80.9% 8% -83.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -63% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$305 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$4,212
Unrealized−$500
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses36 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$1,819
Open positions3
Markets (closed)218 / 221
History coverage65d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Inner Circle 38¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Inner Circle 16¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $457 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $503 −$361 -72%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $419 −$114 -27%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $403 −$200 -50%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $579 −$300 -52%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $120 −$118 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 23 $338 +$13 +4%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $414 −$100 -24%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $682 −$600 -88%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $236 −$34 -14%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $756 −$153 -20%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $379 +$130 +34%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $483 −$200 -41%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $975 −$447 -46%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $69 −$67 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,783 −$600 -34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,425 −$600 -42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $802 −$148 -18%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,622 −$580 -36%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $358 +$234 +65%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,170 −$552 -47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,576 −$680 -43%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $531 −$200 -38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,298 −$535 -23%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $392 −$87 -22%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $514 −$137 -27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $551 −$100 -18%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $618 −$100 -16%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $867 −$600 -69%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $948 −$300 -32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,132 −$219 -19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $351 −$48 -14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $336 −$330 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $398 −$93 -23%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $421 −$115 -27%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $471 −$65 -14%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $760 −$555 -73%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $469 −$162 -35%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,673 −$454 -27%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,415 −$864 -61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,043 −$430 -41%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $252 +$100 +40%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,268 −$601 -47%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $584 −$275 -47%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $811 −$300 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 16¢ $103 29m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 44¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 33¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $304 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $887 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 89¢ $50 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 44¢ $203 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 53¢ $203 16h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $330 19h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 32¢ $11 20h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 31¢ $153 20h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 41¢ $136 20h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 61¢ $202 20h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $436 21h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 81¢ $101 21h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $116 22h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 64¢ $202 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 50¢ $203 22h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $213 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 94¢ $200 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 54¢ $203 24h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 100¢ $451 24h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 43¢ $102 25h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 60¢ $10 25h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 60¢ $264 25h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 43¢ $203 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 34¢ $120 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 37¢ $136 40h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $203 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.01 · official $10.01 (match) · 946 history records