Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb5b4…9846
crypto · 304 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$1,948 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,901 · open −$71
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$212
Realized−$1,901
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses257 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage83d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 303 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $282 $212 −$71 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $519 $0 −$519 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-01? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $302 $0 −$302 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 08 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 02 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 02 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 02 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $21 +$1 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics May 01 $13 +$3 +21%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 30 $18 +$1 +3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 30 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $303 −$302 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Sloane Stephens Apr 21 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Linda Fruhvirtova Apr 20 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 20 $541 −$519 -96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 20 $10 $0 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 19 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 19 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $20 −$9 -45%
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Angers SCO vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Apr 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$679
world 9% −$902
economics 5% −$386
sports 1% +$8
other 1% −$14
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $296 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 37d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 37d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 42d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 42d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 44d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 44d
Oilers vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 95¢ $21 44d
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 82¢ $13 44d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $5 44d
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $18 45d
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 92¢ $17 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 303 -2.5% -11.8% 85% 20% -24.9%
all 303 -2.5% -11.8% 85% 20% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 20% -24.9%
10% -20.2% 9% -32.1%
15% -27.9% 6% -38.7%
20% -35.0% 4% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.68 · official $211.68 (match) · 986 history records