Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5b0…64f3 crypto 1053 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 253d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,386 (-10%) realized −$4,392 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%495W / 556L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$232
14 days−$197
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,872
crypto 33% −$1,670
weather 26% −$975
sports 5% −$171
politics 1% −$3
world 0% −$34
culture 0% −$24
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -7.7% -16.5% 29% 22% -33.2%
≤30d 75 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 27% -27.4%
≤90d 425 -10.3% -18.9% 45% 35% -15.6%
all 1051 -11.7% -20.1% 47% 37% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 37% -19.3%
10% -27.7% 29% -27.0%
15% -34.7% 23% -34.0%
20% -41.1% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$4,392
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses495 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1051 / 1053
History coverage253d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1051 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $53 −$51 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 25 $13 −$11 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 23? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$15 +478%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$18 +880%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$16 +304%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$12 +228%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$13 +315%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $36 −$34 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 23 $17 +$84 +501%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $38 −$35 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 −$10 -74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $90 +$71 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$19 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$24 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 +$2 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 52¢ $50 43m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 47¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 38¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $89 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 41h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 32¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.11 · official $35.11 (match) · 3447 history records