Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ae…b4e8 weather 580 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%527W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$17
14 days+$18
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 3% -11.5%
≤30d 401 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 568 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 3% -9.4%
all 568 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses527 / 41
Open positions12
Markets (closed)568 / 580
History coverage50d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? No 95¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? No 93¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? No 95¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? No 96¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $8 57m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.13 · official $76.13 (match) · 1306 history records