Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ac…b255 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 415d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$994 (-21%) realized −$1,038 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$149
14 days+$206
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$447
other 41% −$399
world 3% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 64% 64% +2.4%
≤30d 34 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 41% -3.4%
≤90d 41 -10.0% -18.6% 37% 37% -23.2%
all 47 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 32% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 32% -29.7%
10% -35.8% 30% -36.5%
15% -42.0% 26% -42.6%
20% -47.7% 21% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$82 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

415d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$1,038
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage415d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 78¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$155 +152%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$71 +140%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 −$73 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$46 +23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$187 +365%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $46 +$82 +180%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$27 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 −$78 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$52 -51%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$218 +214%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $199 +$339 +170%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $98 +$91 +93%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 13 $499 −$402 -80%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $200 −$122 -61%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 PGA Championship? May 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $71 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 28¢ $79 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $21 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $72 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 7d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $128 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $97 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 8d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $46 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $49 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.52 · official $143.52 (match) · 93 history records