Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5aa…8b74 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$7,882 (-31%) realized −$6,972 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 30L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day3455.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,972
7 days−$6,972
14 days−$6,972
30 days−$6,972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 21% -30.1%
≤30d 66 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 21% -30.1%
≤90d 66 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 21% -30.1%
all 66 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 21% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3455.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 21% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 9% -36.8%
15% -46.8% 5% -42.9%
20% -52.0% 2% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$608) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
64.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$314 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized−$6,972
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day3455.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 53¢ 52¢ $404 $393 −$11 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 40¢ 48¢ $309 $370 +$61 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $608 $0 −$608 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $595 $0 −$595 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $343 $0 −$343 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $339 $0 −$339 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $622 $0 −$622 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $449 $0 −$449 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $356 $0 −$356 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $641 $0 −$641 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $486 $0 −$486 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $595 $0 −$595 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $312 $0 −$312 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $514 $0 −$514 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $492 $0 −$492 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $304 $0 −$304 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $427 $0 −$427 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $234 $0 −$234 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $465 $0 −$465 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $608 −$608 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $595 −$595 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $449 −$449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $486 −$486 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $595 −$595 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $465 −$465 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $238 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1,438 +$143 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $696 +$67 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $165 +$31 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $129 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $222 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1,119 +$326 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $461 +$174 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $735 +$69 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $215 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $487 +$63 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $182 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1,163 +$89 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $227 +$48 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $241 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $703 +$49 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $478 −$155 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $159 +$74 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $891 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $501 −$21 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1,052 +$80 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1,045 +$74 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $235 −$156 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $96 −$74 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $415 −$184 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $232 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $152 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1,076 +$70 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $523 +$43 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $973 +$66 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $214 −$45 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1,033 +$27 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $315 +$27 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $53 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $64 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.94 · official $762.93 (match) · 3500 history records