Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5aa…5bd7 sports 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,203 (+3%) realized +$7,161 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%164W / 124L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$703per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$750est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$391
14 days+$1,174
30 days+$2,815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$5,449
crypto 27% +$173
other 7% +$815
finance 6% +$613
economics 1% −$950
world 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -76.3% -78.5% 0% 0% -78.5%
≤30d 8 +31.2% +18.7% 62% 62% +35.8%
≤90d 100 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 45% -11.1%
all 288 -1.0% -10.4% 57% 53% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 53% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -15.1%
15% -26.8% 32% -23.3%
20% -34.0% 23% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$923) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$384 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$10,378
Realized+$7,161
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses164 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$750
Open positions14
Markets (closed)288 / 302
History coverage190d
Avg bet$703
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $3,667 $3,738 +$72 (+2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 29¢ 59¢ $1,000 $2,065 +$1,065 (+106%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $1,000 −$200 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 42¢ $1,129 $929 −$200 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,000 $843 −$157 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $640 $686 +$46 (+7%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $500 $551 +$51 (+10%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 23¢ $300 $177 −$123 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 28¢ $200 $97 −$103 (-52%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 23¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 12¢ $100 $41 −$59 (-59%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes $100 $17 −$83 (-83%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 14¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $512 −$391 -76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,535 +$493 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $799 +$1,372 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $234 −$158 -68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $1,216 +$558 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $510 +$500 +98%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $509 +$741 +146%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $275 +$366 +133%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $405 +$262 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 10 $389 −$389 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $91 −$90 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $102 −$100 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 07 $103 +$80 +77%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $4,009 +$4,049 +101%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $34 −$33 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 05 $203 −$200 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 05 $206 −$200 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $303 −$66 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $461 −$118 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 03 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 03 $447 +$271 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 03 $512 +$154 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 03 $216 +$82 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 03 $337 +$152 +45%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $1,319 +$1,305 +99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $4,711 −$3,810 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $900 +$71 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $550 −$534 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 28 $2,100 −$2,067 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $500 −$492 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $680 +$769 +113%
LeBron James: Points O/U 24.5 Apr 25 $818 −$818 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 25 $1,240 −$931 -75%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Apr 25 $800 −$519 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 25 $500 −$405 -81%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5) Apr 25 $362 −$362 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 25 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5 Apr 25 $2,304 −$2,304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-16.5) Apr 25 $400 −$172 -43%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 25 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 25 $500 −$290 -58%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $76 +$24 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 21m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 21m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 22m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 23m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 26m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 26m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 26m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 27m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $121 28m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 28m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 29m
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $411 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $206 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $305 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 19¢ $307 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $200 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $5 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $350 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $829 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $303 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $193 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $6 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,378.10 · official $10,317.13 (match) · 2232 history records