Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb5a8…bbd2 crypto 1816 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,986 (+2%) realized +$6,986 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%716W / 794L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$86,443
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 +17.3% +6.1% 51% 51% -2.2%
≤30d 1079 +22.3% +10.7% 53% 53% +21.7%
≤90d 1510 +10.2% -0.3% 47% 47% +20.3%
all 1510 +10.2% -0.3% 47% 47% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 47% +20.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 47% +8.8%
15% -18.5% 47% -1.7%
20% -26.5% 47% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$120 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses716 / 794
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1510 / 1816
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$194
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1510 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$24 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$49 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$26 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$47 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$25 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$18 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$73 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$21 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $59 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $66 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $58 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $29 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records