Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb5a5…e3ca crypto 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,474 (+3%) realized +$11,495 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%73W / 80L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,827per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,570
crypto 43% −$8,558
sports 4% +$2,385
politics 1% +$3,793
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 24% -28.2%
≤30d 153 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 153 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 40% -9.5%
all 153 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 40% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 40% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -18.1%
15% -29.5% 24% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,680 vs −$1,530 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$3,283
Realized+$11,495
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses73 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2,827
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3,304 $3,283 −$21 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,480 +$1,050 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,275 +$19 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,416 −$152 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,102 +$126 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,037 +$65 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $618 +$146 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $516 −$242 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $641 −$126 -20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $604 +$37 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $339 −$108 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $362 −$23 -6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $258 +$103 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11,145 −$11,145 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $549 −$291 -53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10,111 +$1,034 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,028 −$705 -69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8,086 +$3,304 +41%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,060 −$189 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3,075 −$3,075 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4,904 −$1,117 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9,750 +$1,450 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10,082 −$10,082 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,162 −$883 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,409 −$1,409 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $23,565 −$23,565 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,278 −$1,278 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $2,020 +$361 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6,941 +$1,608 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4,756 +$662 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6,797 −$192 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6,020 +$1,909 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4,496 −$4,496 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4,760 +$5,484 +115%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $7,424 +$1,300 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6,745 +$8,884 +132%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4,665 −$3,986 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $846 −$496 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $17 −$11 -65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $45,454 +$4,008 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $7,483 +$2,012 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $830 +$666 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $1,023 +$184 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $1,016 +$171 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $4,183 +$2,391 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $9,168 +$1,810 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $1,867 +$110 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $6,154 +$503 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $4,912 +$6,132 +125%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2,817 −$2,517 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,343 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,343 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,186 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $2,187 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,293 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $2,294 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $2,264 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $2,264 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,415 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $10 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1,102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,037 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 47¢ $273 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $516 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 77¢ $516 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $641 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $641 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $604 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $618 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $230 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $230 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $339 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 60¢ $339 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $362 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $362 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $258 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,282.65 · official $3,282.65 (match) · 659 history records