Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb5a2…94c1 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$6
other 48% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -15.1%
≤90d 3 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -15.1%
all 3 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 33% -15.1%
10% -42.2% 0% -23.2%
15% -47.8% 0% -30.6%
20% -52.9% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$32 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $316 $315 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $317 $0 +0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goals Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $316 1h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $317 1h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $317 1h
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $16 10d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $16 10d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $66 10d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 10d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.44 · official $315.44 (match) · 9 history records