Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5a2…c2c2 sports 480 markets active 1d ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,469 (-4%) realized −$2,620 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%224W / 254L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$413est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$2,272
14 days−$2,272
30 days−$2,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$501
other 35% −$2,782
crypto 9% +$59
finance 9% +$694
tech 3% +$308
world 1% −$97
economics 1% −$13
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -20.1% -27.8% 20% 20% -52.2%
≤30d 176 -12.5% -20.8% 36% 30% -16.5%
≤90d 228 -11.5% -19.9% 39% 33% -19.0%
all 478 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 42% -14.1%
10% -19.9% 35% -22.3%
15% -27.6% 28% -29.8%
20% -34.7% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$2,750
Realized−$2,620
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses224 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$413
Open positions2
Markets (closed)478 / 480
History coverage203d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $2,596 $2,748 +$151 (+6%)
Will Weibo Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $413 −$114 -28%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $42 −$14 -33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $346 −$102 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $867 −$855 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,604 −$680 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $475 −$102 -22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$55 +548%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $117 −$113 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $59 −$10 -17%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 −$10 -42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $122 −$16 -13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $402 +$88 +22%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$14 -47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $168 +$127 +76%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $95 −$31 -33%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $60 +$54 +90%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$8 -42%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $79 −$7 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $293 −$90 -31%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 01 $190 −$186 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $350 −$23 -6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $128 −$11 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $81 +$20 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $56 +$16 +30%
Will JD Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $143 −$22 -15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $40 +$53 +134%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $278 −$15 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $43 −$5 -12%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $46 −$3 -6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $21 +$25 +118%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $78 −$4 -6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $183 −$105 -57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $217 −$213 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $463 +$381 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $63 −$15 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1,202 −$201 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $145 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $16 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $22 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $23 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 52¢ $291 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $4 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 54¢ $16 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 37¢ $199 42h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 36¢ $1,656 42h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 7¢ $4 2d
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 7¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 7¢ $23 2d
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 9¢ $23 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 43¢ $142 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $142 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $145 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 20¢ $145 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $237 3d
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 40¢ $236 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $867 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,750.02 · official $2,750.02 (match) · 2264 history records