Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B5 0xb5a1…8e18 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$78 (+2%) realized +$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$4
sports 29% +$71
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +49.4% +35.2% 100% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 3 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 67% -7.0%
all 6 +20.4% +8.9% 100% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 33% -6.9%
10% -1.5% 17% -15.8%
15% -11.0% 17% -23.9%
20% -19.8% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$826
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage101d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $828 $826 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,648 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +98%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 24 $352 +$51 +14%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $503 +$14 +3%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 19 $117 +$6 +5%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 14 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $828 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $828 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $133 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $134 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $123 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $825 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $823 23d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $2 23d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 23d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 75¢ $211 88d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 64¢ $97 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $1 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $1 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $3 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $2 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $1 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $2 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $5 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $3 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $9 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $4 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $3 92d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $19 93d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $4 93d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 66¢ $10 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.37 · official $826.37 (match) · 59 history records