Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B5 0xb59a…fe30 sports 83 markets active 5h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate79%59W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3
other 36% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +13.0% +2.2% 82% 57% +3.7%
≤30d 75 +2.3% -7.5% 79% 53% -5.5%
≤90d 75 +2.3% -7.5% 79% 53% -5.5%
all 75 +2.3% -7.5% 79% 53% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 53% -5.5%
10% -16.3% 32% -14.5%
15% -24.4% 17% -22.8%
20% -31.8% 11% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses59 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)75 / 83
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 21h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 83¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.82 (match) · 153 history records