Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B5 0xb598…7a7d other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$93 (+6%) realized +$93 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-29.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-21.7%	-29.2%	42%	42%	-15.0%
≤30d	19	-21.7%	-29.2%	42%	42%	-15.0%
≤90d	19	-21.7%	-29.2%	42%	42%	-15.0%
all	19	-21.7%	-29.2%	42%	42%	-15.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.2%	42%	-15.0%
10%	-36.0%	32%	-23.1%
15%	-42.1%	26%	-30.5%
20%	-47.8%	21%	-37.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -18% → late -25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$51 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$93

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage5d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$202	+$29	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 23	$105	−$105	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 23	$104	−$100	-96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$303	+$138	+46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$252	+$52	+21%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$30	+$30	+98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$152	+$107	+70%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 20	$10	+$8	+83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$34	+34%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 19	$37	−$35	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 19	$21	+$67	+318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 18	$93	−$89	-96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar?	Jun 18	$113	−$110	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	80¢	$230	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$105	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$202	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$303	38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	88¢	$304	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	72¢	$252	2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	50¢	$30	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Spain vs	BUY	23¢	$26	2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$131	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	83¢	$135	4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$88	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$4	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$26	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records