Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B5 0xb597…3389 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$33 (+7%) realized +$60 · open −$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+50.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+65.8%	+50.0%	44%	44%	-0.6%
≤30d	9	+65.8%	+50.0%	44%	44%	-0.6%
≤90d	9	+65.8%	+50.0%	44%	44%	-0.6%
all	9	+65.8%	+50.0%	44%	44%	-0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.0%	44%	-0.6%
10%	+35.7%	44%	-10.1%
15%	+22.6%	44%	-18.8%
20%	+10.6%	44%	-26.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +66% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$78 vs −$55 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized+$60

Unrealized−$27

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage4d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	18¢	8¢	$50	$24	−$26 (-53%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$25	+$57	+234%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$10	+$8	+76%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$172	−$170	-99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$35	+$186	+533%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$24	+$61	+250%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$26	−$25	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$82	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$25	2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$51	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$172	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$221	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$35	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$24	3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.56 · official $77.56 · 15 history records