Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb595…99e2
other · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage311d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Sep 26 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or UAE? Aug 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? Aug 10 $9 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 07 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 07 $53 $0 +0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 06 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% $0
other 27% −$2
world 26% +$1
weather 13% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 26m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $27 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 298d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 301d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 301d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $90 302d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 302d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $2 302d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 302d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.26 · official $18.26 (match) · 135 history records