Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb58a…dc2e sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%18W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$6
other 25% −$4
politics 22% −$4
world 6% −$1
economics 5% +$1
culture 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 178 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses18 / 160
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage153d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $23 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $34 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $26 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $76 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $100 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $33 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $32 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $142 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $26 12d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $16 12d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $9 12d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 24d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $29 32d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $29 33d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $34 47d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 47d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $34 47d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $34 48d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $25 50d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $15 50d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $10 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $23 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $23 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 51d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 55d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $27 55d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $28 56d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $28 56d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $22 56d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $22 57d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $28 57d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $28 57d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 57d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 57d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $35 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.39 · official $26.39 (match) · 822 history records