Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb589…a187 crypto 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$807 (-5%) realized −$807 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate65%129W / 68L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day461.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 6% -10.9%
≤30d 197 +6.5% -3.6% 65% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 197 +6.5% -3.6% 65% 6% -8.5%
all 197 +6.5% -3.6% 65% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover461.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 6% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -17.3%
15% -21.3% 1% -25.3%
20% -29.0% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$807
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses129 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day461.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records