Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B5 0xb587…28ee crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$239 (-8%) realized −$237 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$156

7 days+$156

14 days+$156

30 days+$156

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-0.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+10.9%	+0.3%	100%	40%	-0.4%
≤30d	5	+10.9%	+0.3%	100%	40%	-0.4%
≤90d	20	+10.3%	-0.2%	65%	30%	-10.5%
all	20	+10.3%	-0.2%	65%	30%	-10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.2%	30%	-10.5%
10%	-9.8%	20%	-19.1%
15%	-18.5%	20%	-26.9%
20%	-26.5%	20%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

54% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$54 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized−$237

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage78d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Jun 16	$359	+$12	+3%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$341	+$19	+6%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	Jun 16	$316	+$26	+8%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 15	$266	+$49	+18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$262	+$50	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Apr 07	$218	−$208	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Apr 07	$205	+$13	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Apr 07	$204	+$2	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Apr 07	$224	+$17	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Apr 07	$100	+$93	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Apr 07	$96	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Apr 06	$106	−$100	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Apr 03	$50	−$42	-84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Apr 03	$60	−$7	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Apr 03	$17	+$43	+246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Apr 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Apr 03	$5	+$13	+260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Apr 02	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Apr 01	$5	+$6	+130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Mar 31	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$10	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$100	2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$300	3h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY France	97¢	$359	15h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	100¢	$359	25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	95¢	$341	26h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	SELL New Zealand	98¢	$341	27h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	BUY New Zealand	90¢	$316	28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	BUY Egypt	84¢	$266	34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	SELL Cabo Verde	99¢	$266	34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	88¢	$238	35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	SELL Cabo Verde	79¢	$45	35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	41¢	$24	36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$218	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$205	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$205	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$204	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$204	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$194	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Up	38¢	$38	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$2	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$2	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$2	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$17	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$3	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$2	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$3	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$193	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$100	70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$96	70d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 52 history records