trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 38% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +49.2% | +35.0% | 42% | 8% | -10.3% |
| all | 26 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 46% | 4% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.5% | 4% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -5.5% | 4% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -14.6% | 4% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -23.0% | 4% | -34.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 25 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 24 | $48 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $11 | +$1 | +8% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 23 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $115 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $26 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $43 | +$1 | +3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $43 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Mar 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jun 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 17 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 23 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? | Mar 21 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 15 | $1 | $0 | -0% |