trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -36.1% | -42.2% | 38% | 38% | -31.6% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -31.3% | -37.8% | 43% | 43% | -24.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -31.3% | -37.8% | 43% | 43% | -24.7% |
| all | 24 | -24.9% | -32.1% | 54% | 46% | -23.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.1% | 46% | -23.5% |
| 10% | -38.6% | 33% | -30.8% |
| 15% | -44.5% | 29% | -37.5% |
| 20% | -50.0% | 12% | -43.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | Jun 16 | $35 | +$31 | +86% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Spread: Norway (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $41 | −$40 | -98% |
| Spread: Belgium (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $20 | +$11 | +52% |
| Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 15 | $46 | −$45 | -99% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $45 | +$47 | +105% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | May 28 | $100 | +$31 | +31% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 | Feb 07 | $14 | +$5 | +36% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 | Feb 06 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb | Feb 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $100 | +$21 | +21% |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 9? | Jan 05 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb | Jan 02 | $166 | +$34 | +20% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? | Nov 02 | $1 | $0 | +43% |
| TikTok sale announced by October 31? | Nov 02 | $200 | +$34 | +17% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12? | Oct 29 | $119 | −$119 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $71 | +$1 | +1% |