Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb581…8107 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+7%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% $0
politics 21% $0
crypto 17% +$57
tech 9% $0
world 8% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 33 +61.2% +45.8% 24% 6% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.8% 6% -4.0%
10% +31.9% 6% -13.2%
15% +19.1% 3% -21.6%
20% +7.4% 3% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +124% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×60.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.35 per $1 lost it wins $37.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage370d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $1 $0 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 02 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 20? Jun 21 $3 +$57 +2281%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 3m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 4m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $1 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $31 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $32 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 23d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 345d
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? SELL No 97¢ $69 345d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $8 345d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $8 345d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 345d
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 346d
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 346d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $9 346d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 98¢ $9 346d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $7 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 346d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records