Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb581…b496 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,565 (+10%) realized +$19,492 · open −$6,927
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%114W / 125L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$4,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$1,764
14 days+$1,538
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$13,061
other 43% +$28,808
politics 5% −$3,053
crypto 3% −$798
sports 2% +$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +35.9% +22.9% 85% 69% +45.4%
≤30d 31 -31.3% -37.8% 45% 39% -14.6%
≤90d 90 -35.7% -41.9% 42% 30% -12.7%
all 239 -16.0% -24.0% 48% 36% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 36% +6.5%
10% -31.3% 27% -3.7%
15% -37.9% 21% -13.0%
20% -44.0% 16% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$423 vs −$232 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$4,903
Realized+$19,492
Unrealized−$6,927
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses114 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions21
Markets (closed)239 / 260
History coverage216d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 86¢ $2,000 $1,788 −$212 (-11%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 82¢ 54¢ $1,022 $664 −$358 (-35%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $350 $493 +$143 (+41%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 64¢ 42¢ $699 $462 −$237 (-34%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 84¢ 72¢ $500 $427 −$73 (-15%)
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $294 $328 +$34 (+12%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $250 $162 −$88 (-35%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $500 $102 −$398 (-80%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 63¢ 7¢ $446 $50 −$397 (-89%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 45¢ 1¢ $2,000 $46 −$1,954 (-98%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 55¢ 10¢ $200 $35 −$165 (-83%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $1,100 $32 −$1,068 (-97%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $150 $6 −$144 (-96%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $1,010 $6 −$1,004 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 50¢ 1¢ $150 $2 −$147 (-98%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $120 $1 −$118 (-99%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $163 $1 −$162 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 0¢ $574 $0 −$574 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$159 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$100 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $297 +$695 +234%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $194 +$96 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $280 +$229 +82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $290 +$137 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $543 +$267 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $50 +$35 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $100 +$49 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $144 +$6 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $178 +$14 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $256 −$256 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $100 +$30 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $400 −$400 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $432 −$432 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 −$500 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $410 +$92 +22%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $614 +$74 +12%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $300 +$8 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $500 +$14 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? May 01 $1,779 +$1,656 +93%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $246 −$246 -100%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $175 +$25 +15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $6,527 +$523 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $432 −$432 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 21 $2,054 +$1,313 +64%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? Apr 16 $114 −$36 -32%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $1,000 +$250 +25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $1,105 −$505 -46%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $138 −$138 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $801 −$801 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $462 53m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,000 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 84¢ $500 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $500 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $500 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $545 47h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $161 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $68 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $86 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $298 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $53 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $96 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 53¢ $150 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,903.15 · official $4,903.16 (match) · 1337 history records