Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb581…1b9c sports 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,780 (+7%) realized +$1,761 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%192W / 150L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$1,150
other 46% +$726
crypto 0% −$101
world 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 56% -6.2%
≤30d 33 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 55% -11.4%
≤90d 144 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 54% -7.6%
all 342 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 56% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 56% -3.4%
10% -14.2% 56% -12.6%
15% -22.4% 53% -21.1%
20% -30.1% 46% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$72 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$1,761
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses192 / 150
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage162d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $98 +$132 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $102 −$6 -6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$45 +79%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$121 +119%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $97 +$40 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$134 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $61 +$62 +101%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $57 +$38 +67%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 19 $89 +$29 +32%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $100 +$90 +90%
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 May 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $71 +$46 +65%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 May 10 $107 +$69 +64%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 09 $61 +$46 +76%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$53 +52%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $77 +$123 +158%
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $101 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 39¢ $96 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $57 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 35h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $101 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $97 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $98 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $45 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $100 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.33 · official $119.33 (match) · 544 history records