Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb57f…0c96 sports 793 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,218 (-10%) realized −$22,814 · open −$404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%334W / 454L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$2,997est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,285
7 days−$3,011
14 days−$51
30 days−$8,512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$22,285
other 4% −$3,483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 382 -5.6% -14.6% 46% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 788 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 42% -19.2%
all 788 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 42% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 39% -26.9%
15% -35.3% 35% -34.0%
20% -41.6% 27% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$242 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$3,437
Realized−$22,814
Unrealized−$404
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses334 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,997
Open positions5
Markets (closed)788 / 793
History coverage78d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 79¢ 66¢ $1,835 $1,521 −$314 (-17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 40¢ 40¢ $750 $759 +$9 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 80¢ $719 $608 −$111 (-15%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $412 $420 +$8 (+2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Australia 91¢ 93¢ $126 $129 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 289 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1,169 −$1,145 -98%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 16 $399 +$151 +38%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $416 −$412 -99%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $84 −$6 -7%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $603 +$120 +20%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $573 +$113 +20%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $177 −$52 -29%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $462 −$35 -8%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2,023 +$1,255 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $419 +$562 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $264 +$227 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,549 +$306 +20%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $632 +$262 +41%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $209 −$207 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $402 +$63 +16%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $389 −$114 -29%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$199 -98%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs MURASH GAMING (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group S Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $386 +$195 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $740 +$160 +22%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$54 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $310 +$326 +105%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $409 +$1,130 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,245 −$1,220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 14 $40 −$39 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $439 −$435 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $167 +$232 +139%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $637 +$173 +27%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $538 +$481 +89%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,563 −$1,552 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,513 −$1,500 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $151 −$147 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$251 +123%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $638 −$633 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $116 +$82 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $125 −$124 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,179 −$1,155 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $240 −$237 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $201 −$196 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $185 −$183 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 13 $222 −$6 -3%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $273 −$270 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League S Jun 13 $160 −$158 -99%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $91 +$110 +122%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$69 +68%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$60 +114%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $445 +$167 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $808 +$137 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $720 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $302 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1,544 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 60¢ $112 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $22 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $1,147 6h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage SELL Uwinks 100¢ $550 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $416 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $764 9h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL Hive 49¢ $78 10h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 71¢ $68 10h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 72¢ $55 11h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 51¢ $84 11h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 72¢ $82 11h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 72¢ $73 11h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 72¢ $61 11h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 72¢ $61 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 91¢ $126 12h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $91 16h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $686 19h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $150 19h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 83¢ $573 21h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Dandelions 50¢ $427 22h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 14¢ $26 22h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 14¢ $27 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $264 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $603 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,437.42 · official $3,437.42 (match) · 1983 history records