Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb579…f1b7 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-24%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$31
other 30% −$39
sports 25% −$119
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -28.2% -35.1% 42% 33% -38.5%
≤30d 33 -28.2% -35.1% 42% 33% -38.5%
≤90d 33 -28.2% -35.1% 42% 33% -38.5%
all 33 -28.2% -35.1% 42% 33% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 33% -38.5%
10% -41.3% 30% -44.4%
15% -47.0% 30% -49.7%
20% -52.2% 18% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $68 −$35 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$20 +156%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$25 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $86 −$19 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$17 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$13 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $34 17m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $13 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $19 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.97 · official $21.97 (match) · 61 history records