Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B5 0xb578…20d9 politics 3 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$101 (+1%) realized +$222 · open −$121

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$5,809per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$16,395now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+39.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+54.6%	+39.9%	100%	100%	+39.9%
≤30d	1	+54.6%	+39.9%	100%	100%	+39.9%
≤90d	1	+54.6%	+39.9%	100%	100%	+39.9%
all	1	+54.6%	+39.9%	100%	100%	+39.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.9%	100%	+39.9%
10%	+26.5%	100%	+26.5%
15%	+14.3%	100%	+14.3%
20%	+3.1%	100%	+3.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$212 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$16,395

Realized+$222

Unrealized−$121

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$5,809

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$13,654	$13,679	+$25 (+0%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2,862	$2,716	−$146 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$388	+$212	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$388	5h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,380	23h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	21¢	$9,539	23h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	46h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	46h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	20¢	$748	46h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	20¢	$3,767	47h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,594	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,394.86 · official $16,401.55 (match) · 15 history records