Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb572…0432 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 24% +$6
politics 23% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -5.6% -14.6% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -5.6% -14.6% 20% 0% -10.3%
all 43 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.1%
10% -18.3% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage266d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $80 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 −$1 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $8 −$2 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66? Oct 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $44 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $44 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $5 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $35 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records