Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb56d…af04 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$84
14 days+$172
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 86% −$10
sports 11% +$94
other 2% −$47
tech 1% +$16
culture 1% −$60
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +65.3%
≤30d 6 +42.2% +28.7% 67% 67% +41.1%
≤90d 31 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 42% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 44% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 44% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 38% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 34% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage96d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$88 +172%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 20 $61 +$16 +26%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $97 −$9 -10%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 06 $141 −$140 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $101 +$95 +93%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $100 +$44 +44%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $100 −$99 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $44 +$10 +23%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $72 +$70 +97%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $80 +$95 +119%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 21 $30 −$3 -12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 16 $10,009 −$10 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $12 +$14 +119%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 01 $15 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Mar 27 $1 $0 -50%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $6 +$14 +233%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $47 +$68 +144%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $27 +$20 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $152 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 16d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 36¢ $20 20d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 27d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 98¢ $76 27d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 51¢ $9 29d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 60¢ $87 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $141 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 77¢ $61 44d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 65¢ $97 46d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 51¢ $101 46d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $100 50d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $100 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 81¢ $44 50d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 50¢ $72 52d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 45¢ $80 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $56 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 59¢ $9 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 59¢ $4 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 59¢ $13 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 65¢ $30 58d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $9,999 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $10,009 61d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY FURIA 45¢ $12 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 69d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $27 72d
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 78d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $103 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.64 · official $148.64 (match) · 67 history records