Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B5 0xb56c…30f3 weather 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$348 (+30%) realized +$350 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%97W / 102L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$157
14 days+$227
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% +$364
crypto 29% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +160.6% +135.8% 62% 62% +33.1%
≤30d 98 -0.6% -10.0% 27% 27% +0.1%
≤90d 199 +43.2% +29.6% 49% 48% +11.6%
all 199 +43.2% +29.6% 49% 48% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.6% 48% +11.6%
10% +17.2% 43% +0.9%
15% +5.9% 38% -8.8%
20% -4.5% 33% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$350
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses97 / 102
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? No 82¢ 86¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$16 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$20 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$98 +7476%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$27 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$24 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$18 +920%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$56 +297%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$21 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$10 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$14 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 +$14 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$12 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 20? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.52 · official $55.52 (match) · 623 history records