Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb569…021e sports 1280 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,730 (+7%) realized +$8,724 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%1188W / 87L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days+$3,277
14 days+$4,535
30 days+$5,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$7,343
other 1% +$4
weather 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 19% +3.1%
≤30d 193 +5.8% -4.3% 65% 23% +4.2%
≤90d 1275 +3.7% -6.1% 93% 6% -5.9%
all 1275 +3.7% -6.1% 93% 6% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 6% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -14.9%
15% -23.3% 3% -23.2%
20% -30.8% 3% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.29 per $1 lost it wins $4.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$8,724
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1188 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1275 / 1280
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Game Handicap: TTG (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) Dragon Ranger Gaming 99¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs the bug 65¢ 99¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner NA, wed win 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Cloud Rising 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $204 +$2 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $446 +$4 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Jun 16 $269 +$7 +2%
Map Handicap: Solar (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $4 +$6 +129%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $67 −$11 -16%
Map Handicap: trigger (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 16 $168 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$4 -24%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The Soulless Team vs Suplex Team (BO3) - Bet Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $82 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $57 −$1 -2%
Overwatch: HUNENG vs Four Angry Men - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Overwatch: All Gamers vs Solus Victorem (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seed Jun 14 $495 +$6 +1%
Overwatch: All Gamers vs Solus Victorem - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $128 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Overwatch: HUNENG vs ReturnZ (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 14 $77 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: VENOM ESPOR vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $79 +$19 +24%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $57 +$88 +153%
Counter-Strike: VENOM ESPOR vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pla Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $90 +$169 +187%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$24 -82%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League S Jun 13 $93 +$2 +3%
Game Handicap: 4AM (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $145 +$2 +2%
Overwatch: Solus Victorem vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Gatorian - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $70 +$32 +47%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$59 -97%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$9 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 2¢ $2 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 29m
Game Handicap: TTG (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 100¢ $100 57m
Game Handicap: TTG (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 99¢ $99 1h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 1 Winner BUY Omnix 99¢ $99 13h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 1 Winner BUY Omnix 99¢ $104 13h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le SELL Rebels Gaming 72¢ $7 14h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Rebels Gaming 72¢ $7 14h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris BUY Cyber Hero 99¢ $10 14h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Solar 99¢ $6 14h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND - Game 1 Winner BUY Cyber Hero 99¢ $446 14h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 2 Winner BUY Solar 99¢ $99 14h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 2 Winner BUY Solar 99¢ $49 14h
Map Handicap: Solar (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) BUY Solar 99¢ $72 14h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Solar 99¢ $53 14h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 1 Winner BUY Solar 99¢ $32 14h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 BUY FORZE Esports 99¢ $118 15h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 BUY FORZE Esports 96¢ $151 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 56¢ $56 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $74 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $67 15h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY LPH Gaming 10¢ $2 19h
Map Handicap: trigger (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) BUY Gerald 99¢ $99 19h
Map Handicap: trigger (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) BUY Gerald 98¢ $43 19h
Map Handicap: trigger (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) BUY Gerald 98¢ $27 19h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 43¢ $4 19h
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi SELL 6Targets Esports 0¢ $0 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi BUY 6Targets Esports 49¢ $0 21h
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi BUY 6Targets Esports 43¢ $26 21h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 1¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.02 · official $415.02 (match) · 3500 history records