Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb567…b8cf other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$79 (-1%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$24
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$8
politics 19% −$3
tech 15% −$2
world 13% −$3
finance 12% −$2
sports 8% −$63
weather 4% −$1
crypto 1% −$5
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 11% -9.9%
≤90d 55 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 5% -10.4%
all 55 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -10.4%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.9%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.8%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$5 · ×8.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 51
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage72d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $120 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $59 +$41 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $135 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $30 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $100 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $100 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 25 $115 −$5 -5%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? May 20 $100 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $30 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $100 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $203 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $128 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 09 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $100 $0 -0%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $200 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 01 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $165 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $32 +$88 +270%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 25? Apr 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 21 Apr 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Apr 17 $200 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 17 $712 −$2 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Apr 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $400 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $300 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Apr 10 $300 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Apr 10 $400 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $137 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $137 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 2d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $110 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $110 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $59 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $50 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play BUY 1WIN 64¢ $64 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $100 14d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $135 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $135 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 18d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $30 18d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $30 19d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $100 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $100 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 98¢ $100 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 98¢ $100 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records