Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb55b…c5b4 sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,350 (+9%) realized +$2,248 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%114W / 84L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$374est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$547
7 days+$1,041
14 days+$2,259
30 days+$2,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,362
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +19.0% +7.7% 66% 61% +6.7%
≤30d 198 +5.9% -4.2% 58% 55% -1.4%
≤90d 198 +5.9% -4.2% 58% 55% -1.4%
all 198 +5.9% -4.2% 58% 55% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 55% -1.4%
10% -13.4% 54% -10.8%
15% -21.7% 50% -19.4%
20% -29.4% 43% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$97 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$2,248
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses114 / 84
Est. fees paid−$374
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage25d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ 100¢ $58 $160 +$102 (+178%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$64 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $156 +$129 +83%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $153 −$3 -2%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $505 +$167 +33%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $151 +$129 +85%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $153 +$213 +139%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $152 +$148 +97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $151 +$158 +104%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $153 −$151 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $205 −$202 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $151 +$119 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$89 +59%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$74 +49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$184 +122%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $307 −$161 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$151 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends (BO3) - ROG Journey Jun 13 $62 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $150 +$78 +52%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$119 +79%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $154 +$116 +75%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $192 −$151 -78%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $152 +$146 +96%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$30 +85%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $151 +$209 +138%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $151 −$13 -8%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $153 +$11 +7%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $150 +$139 +92%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $150 +$64 +43%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$164 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $61 +$45 +73%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $161 +$114 +71%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $152 +$15 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $76 +$63 +83%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $162 +$110 +68%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $302 +$84 +28%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $141 +$57 +40%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $151 +$109 +72%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $75 +$23 +30%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $153 −$151 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $150 +$24 +16%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $150 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 55¢ $154 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $156 15h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 51¢ $88 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL SPARTA 47¢ $209 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL SPARTA 47¢ $464 18h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 51¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 50¢ $64 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 34¢ $170 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 37¢ $185 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 32¢ $40 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 32¢ $0 18h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 36¢ $110 19h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY Rooster 57¢ $154 24h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $29 42h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $12 42h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $103 42h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $8 42h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $7 43h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $146 43h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $9 44h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $63 44h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $78 44h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $152 47h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 70¢ $150 47h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 49¢ $72 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 49¢ $74 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 49¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $153 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 49¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.92 · official $159.92 (match) · 615 history records