Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B5 0xb557…ef84 world 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,129 (+9%) realized +$1,309 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%249W / 289L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$610
14 days+$599
30 days+$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$430
other 21% +$90
politics 18% +$94
sports 3% +$56
tech 3% +$107
crypto 2% +$279
economics 2% +$29
weather 1% −$78
culture 1% +$87
finance 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +174.4% +148.3% 72% 67% +92.3%
≤30d 62 +26.3% +14.3% 47% 40% +25.8%
≤90d 317 -30.4% -37.0% 29% 25% -12.8%
all 538 +11.3% +0.7% 46% 42% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 42% +0.8%
10% -8.9% 38% -8.9%
15% -17.7% 30% -17.7%
20% -25.8% 24% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized+$1,309
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses249 / 289
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions45
Markets (closed)538 / 583
History coverage444d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $229 $99 −$130 (-57%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+78%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 29¢ 99¢ $15 $52 +$37 (+244%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 29¢ 46¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+59%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 21¢ 19¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 20¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 50¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $21 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 74¢ 94¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $80 +$15 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $54 −$16 -30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $61 +$10 +16%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +108%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $5 +$17 +335%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$27 -71%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 16 $74 +$17 +22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $8 +$71 +889%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $67 +$58 +87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $45 +$285 +628%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$43 +289%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$80 +809%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $15 +$12 +82%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $20 +$50 +251%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $88 +$11 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $18 +$82 +458%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $34 +$16 +47%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +43%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $15 −$12 -77%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $106 +$14 +14%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $240 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $14 +$9 +61%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $17 +$7 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $127 +$323 +254%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$18 +35%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$17 +54%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $108 +$6 +5%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $26 +$13 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $63 −$17 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn May 29 $55 −$37 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $96 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 7¢ $10 17h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 17h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.96 · official $1,000.18 (match) · 1619 history records