Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb554…e50d sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$595
7 days+$595
14 days+$595
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$588
crypto 6% −$12
other 2% −$28
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 50% +91.6%
≤30d 6 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 50% +91.6%
≤90d 18 -22.5% -29.9% 39% 28% -34.2%
all 34 +9.7% -0.8% 56% 44% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 44% +2.6%
10% -10.3% 38% -7.2%
15% -18.9% 26% -16.2%
20% -26.9% 24% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$77 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage257d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$7 -24%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Jun 28 $59 −$30 -50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 +$19 +170%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $402 +$604 +150%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 13 $778 −$774 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $110 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Apr 12 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Apr 12 $66 −$1 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Apr 12 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 06 $102 +$25 +25%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Sangal (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Feb 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 16 $100 −$2 -2%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $516 +$266 +52%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $25 +$75 +300%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $200 +$217 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $80 +$35 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $25 +$19 +75%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $642 +$379 +59%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 25 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $50 +$6 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $50 +$17 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 20 $100 $0 -0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting? Oct 18 $55 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR SELL 12¢ $29 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR BUY 23¢ $59 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL 90¢ $30 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY 33¢ $11 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 39¢ $402 35h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $778 75d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 79¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 76d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $110 76d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY T1 81¢ $128 132d
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In SELL DRX 100¢ $128 141d
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In BUY DRX 80¢ $102 141d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Sangal (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL ECSTATIC 100¢ $102 143d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Sangal (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY ECSTATIC 98¢ $100 143d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? BUY No 74¢ $19 155d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL Yes 42¢ $98 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 162d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 66¢ $516 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $50 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 28¢ $25 237d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $25 238d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 48¢ $200 239d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 71¢ $50 240d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 68¢ $30 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.47 · official $39.47 (match) · 73 history records