Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb54e…b2a7 weather 589 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$926 (+3%) realized +$932 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate52%302W / 284L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$503
14 days+$843
30 days+$1,193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% +$353
other 25% +$416
crypto 3% −$21
world 1% +$27
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -15.8% -23.8% 50% 29% -1.8%
≤30d 228 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 27% -4.4%
≤90d 462 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 30% -6.9%
all 586 -2.6% -11.8% 52% 31% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 31% -7.1%
10% -20.3% 24% -16.0%
15% -28.0% 20% -24.1%
20% -35.0% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$932
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses302 / 284
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)586 / 589
History coverage122d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 28? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $289 +$27 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? Jun 27 $12 +$13 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $260 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 +$18 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $17 −$13 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $239 +$28 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $176 +$23 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $120 +$34 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 −$4 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $98 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $110 +$21 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$12 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $85 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $198 +$32 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $300 +$12 +4%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $327 +$4 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $319 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$76 +500%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $257 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $193 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 +$13 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $64 −$50 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $300 +$27 +9%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $300 +$18 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$5 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 21m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $316 25m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $67 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 89¢ $178 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $62 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $140 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $96 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $94 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $69 28h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 26? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 42h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $6 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.89 · official $5.89 (match) · 2520 history records