Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb54b…ceb2 politics 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$6
other 22% −$3
sports 12% −$2
culture 11% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
world 8% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$802) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage90d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $765 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 17 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 16 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $170 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Mar 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March Mar 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 5m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 11m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 18m
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,320 28m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 35m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,381 45m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 52m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,352 1h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $975 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $278 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,256 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $62 36d
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 36d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 36d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 36d
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 36d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $15 36d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $17 36d
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 36d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $31 36d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $764 38d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 38d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $25 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $756 38d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $16 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $804 38d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $20 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records