Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb549…4d11 crypto 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%51W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$70
other 15% −$1
economics 13% −$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -9.5%
all 84 -0.8% -10.3% 61% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses51 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage231d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 22? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 30? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $29 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Apr 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Apr 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 30? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 26? Mar 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22? Mar 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $29 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 11 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 1? Mar 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $126 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 9 Mar 01 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 3 Feb 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 31? Feb 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 31 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $29 34d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 34d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $29 42d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 42d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 56d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 56d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $29 59d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $29 59d
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY No 99¢ $29 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $29 62d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $29 62d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $29 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $29 64d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $29 64d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $29 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $29 76d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? SELL No 100¢ $29 76d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $29 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 83d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 83d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 87d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.09 · official $29.09 (match) · 202 history records