trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 40% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 44% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 44% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 30 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 57% | 3% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.0% | 3% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -20.4% | 0% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 0% | -34.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $30 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Jun 20 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $61 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $38 | +$1 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | Jun 07 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Merz events on June 5? | Jun 06 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Starmer out before July? | Jun 05 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 11 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 10 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? | Apr 09 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 07 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Apr 07 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 05 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 04 | $16 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's | Apr 03 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Apr 02 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? | Mar 25 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 23 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? | Mar 20 | $14 | +$2 | +13% |