Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb546…c186 weather 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$128
crypto 34% −$56
other 9% +$65
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 24% -20.8%
≤30d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 24% -20.8%
≤90d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 24% -20.8%
all 37 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 24% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 24% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 24% -28.4%
15% -27.9% 22% -35.3%
20% -35.0% 22% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1? Jun 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $251 −$117 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $93 −$49 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $21 +$16 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 −$10 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $65 +$15 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $10 −$5 -45%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$21 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$27 +265%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 28? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 28? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 +$23 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 27? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$43 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $69 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $115 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $5 −$1 -16%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24 Jun 24 $5 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1? SELL Yes 39¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $62 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 48¢ $66 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 1? BUY Yes 36¢ $34 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 58¢ $83 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $65 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 28? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.28 · official $70.28 (match) · 124 history records