Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb545…589c weather 1276 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$952 (-2%) realized −$955 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate82%1039W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$173
14 days−$325
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$891
crypto 3% −$66
other 2% +$15
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -3.5% -12.7% 84% 13% -12.3%
≤30d 516 +0.6% -8.9% 88% 7% -10.7%
≤90d 1265 -3.3% -12.5% 82% 10% -11.3%
all 1265 -3.3% -12.5% 82% 10% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 10% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 4% -19.8%
15% -28.5% 3% -27.5%
20% -35.5% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$659
Realized−$955
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1039 / 226
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1265 / 1276
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $73 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 90¢ 97¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? No 97¢ 93¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? No 90¢ 89¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $37 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 −$92 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $83 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $193 −$48 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $127 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $192 −$52 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$7 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$6 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $49 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $59 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $35 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $48 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $37 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $61 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $68 10h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $39 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $18 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $92 13h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $62 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $63 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $97 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.88 · official $658.88 (match) · 3500 history records