Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb542…f5f1 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+19%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$10
sports 44% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.1% -22.2% 38% 38% +10.3%
≤30d 8 -14.1% -22.2% 38% 38% +10.3%
≤90d 8 -14.1% -22.2% 38% 38% +10.3%
all 8 -14.1% -22.2% 38% 38% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 38% +10.3%
10% -29.7% 38% -0.2%
15% -36.5% 25% -9.9%
20% -42.7% 12% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $28 +$6 +23%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$50 +324%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $35 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 57¢ $13 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 18¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $15 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 9¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4.87 · 17 history records