Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb540…2644 politics 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 658d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$11
other 25% −$5
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 70 -3.2% -12.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

658d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage658d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $56 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Joe Grogan be Trump's HHS Secretary? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Robert Wilkie for Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in November? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 10d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 35d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 36d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 61d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 62d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $56 69d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $56 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $56 79d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 79d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 88d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 89d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 93d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 93d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 95d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 96d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $56 104d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $56 105d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $56 113d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 132d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $55 148d
Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL No 99¢ $55 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records