Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb53f…4ede politics 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,346 (-1%) realized −$2,346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,363per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$165
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$81
other 36% +$98
sports 14% −$2,350
world 3% −$4
economics 3% −$3
tech 3% −$11
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 74 -4.1% -13.3% 11% 5% -11.1%
all 125 -4.6% -13.7% 22% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 10% -10.8%
10% -22.0% 10% -19.3%
15% -29.5% 10% -27.1%
20% -36.4% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,707) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$36 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,363
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,096 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,296 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,079 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $347 +$2 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $925 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $3,184 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,820 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,272 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,474 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $494 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $392 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $578 +$2 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,910 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $832 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $11,010 −$12 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,992 −$4 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $75 +$73 +97%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $2,374 −$2,374 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $1,964 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $2,081 −$11 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $2,018 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $3,910 −$4 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $3,431 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,414 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,166 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,410 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,419 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,428 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 3h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,159 6h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,160 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,149 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,151 27h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,165 27h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,167 29h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,255 29h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,257 30h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $774 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $775 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,077 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,079 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $923 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $925 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $347 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,119 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,121 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,268 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,270 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,008 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,052 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,097 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records