Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb53a…cdd4 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-38%) realized −$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$31
other 32% −$42
sports 17% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -74.6% -77.1% 9% 9% -73.5%
≤30d 11 -74.6% -77.1% 9% 9% -73.5%
≤90d 26 -45.7% -50.9% 23% 19% -49.8%
all 26 -45.7% -50.9% 23% 19% -49.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.9% 19% -49.8%
10% -55.6% 19% -54.6%
15% -59.9% 19% -59.0%
20% -63.8% 15% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)26 / 39
History coverage38d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 09 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 09 $5 +$15 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 30h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.21 · official $20.21 (match) · 57 history records