Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B5 0xb538…f9f8 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$445 (+39%) realized +$445 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$287per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+20.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+41.5%	+28.0%	100%	100%	+25.5%
≤30d	4	+32.9%	+20.2%	100%	75%	+21.7%
≤90d	4	+32.9%	+20.2%	100%	75%	+21.7%
all	4	+32.9%	+20.2%	100%	75%	+21.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.2%	75%	+21.7%
10%	+8.7%	75%	+10.0%
15%	-1.8%	75%	-0.6%
20%	-11.4%	0%	-10.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$99 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$445

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage13d

Avg bet$287

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France to score first vs. Norway?	Jun 26	$8	+$4	+47%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$575	+$217	+38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$410	+$164	+40%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$153	+$11	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France to score first vs. Norway?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	98¢	$792	1h
France to score first vs. Norway?	BUY Yes	66¢	$8	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	69¢	$575	5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	71¢	$473	22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	38¢	$100	22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$50	23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	37¢	$154	23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$205	25h
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	26¢	$114	12d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	34¢	$50	12d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	25¢	$153	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records