Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb532…8577 weather 583 markets active 22h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$754 (+11%) realized +$754 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%242W / 341L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$67
14 days−$99
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$258
other 1% +$18
world 0% −$15
sports 0% +$13
economics 0% +$93
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +96.3% +77.6% 48% 42% +4.2%
≤30d 105 +26.9% +14.8% 36% 29% -20.2%
≤90d 465 +15.7% +4.7% 39% 26% -8.4%
all 583 +20.6% +9.2% 42% 27% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 27% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 22% -14.3%
15% -10.8% 20% -22.6%
20% -19.6% 18% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses242 / 341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)583 / 583
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 583 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 +$15 +322%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$7 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 +$5 +1973%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$26 +384%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 +$36 +2451%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$38 +757%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $28 +$24 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +138%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$9 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 +$5 +67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 22h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 99¢ $5 36h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 99¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $7 39h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 18¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 33¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records